The logic that makes Russia somehow not the aggressor here is absolutely wild; the war wouldn't have happened if they didn't drive tanks across the border! Russia doesn't have some sort of natural claim on neighbouring countries; we should defer to the people of those countries as to their fate, not to Russia.
Not only that, but the historical analogy here is wrong; Munich isn't the Donbass war, Munich is Russia taking Crimea and subsequently tearing up the Minsk accords is Munich. Not to mention that Ukraine's territorial integrity was guaranteed by Russia (along with the UK and USA) in exchange for giving up their nuclear weapons; it's pretty clear that this war wouldn't have happened if Ukraine was a nuclear state.
If 2014 had been 1938, there would have been no sanctions against Russia (there were none against Nazi Germany then) and the border adjustments would have been accepted: the Sudetenland was recognized as part of Germany, but Crimea is not recognized as part of Russia to this day. So, no, sorry but not even close.
Had Russia outright annexed the Donbass back in 2014 instead of trying to shove its own interpretation of the Minsk Agreements down Ukraine's throat, then things would have been much better for Russia, Ukraine, and the Donbass.
The part that you're very carefully eliding, in both cases actually, is what came before. The Germans, shortly before the Munich Conference, had invaded their sovereign neighbor, Austria, after sponsoring all manner of thuggish actors within the country, and followed it with a sham referendum.
The extent to which Russia's playbook in annexing Crimea matched that of the Anschluss is somewhat shocking for those whose justification is denazification. Both of these incidents clearly should have demonstrated to any that were paying attention that, indeed, both of these states were addicted to gangsterism. Even before that, and again almost exactly parallel, paramilitary or even official forces associated with both powers had been committing atrocities in a supposedly neutral country in the midst of a civil war (Spain and Syria).
I'll concede that the logic of national self-determination was extremely salient post-Versailles, it being a relatively recent invention, and that this did indicate that the creation of Austria and Czechoslovakia in the forms they took was mostly to punish Germany without regard for the self-determination of the Germans living in those countries. But punishing the defeated power in a war was also fair by the logic of the time; it just happened that the victorious powers miscalculated as to which logic would remain salient, and underestimated the extent to which their own interests would immediately cease to coincide once the military threat of Germany at least temporarily receded.
But really, if Germany had actually wanted to employ the self-determination weapon, we'll call it, in at all a good-faith manner, they would have done (or tried to do) the referenda BEFORE they started moving the army around. Referenda had been used in numerous places post-war to determine borders, not least at the German-Polish border. By the logic of self-determination, Germany could have requested or sponsored referenda in Austria and Czechoslovakia. If, as is likely, those states had refused to hold them, or the victorious powers had tried to forbid them, then Germany would have had a much easier time assuming the moral high ground.
But the Germans had no interest in good faith; they wanted to achieve greater Germany, and all else was secondary at best. They would tolerate no such extrinsic or self-incurred risks to the end goal. So it is with Russia. They wanted to dismember and neutralize their rivals, and aggrandize themselves territorially. I don't know to what extent any free and fair referenda took place or were requested and then blocked in places like Donbass, but I doubt there were any.
Also, don't forget that it was the Soviet Union that dismantled itself, and not on the basis of national self-determination. Obviously, numerous of its constituents had territorial and other disputes with each other when the union broke apart along its internal SSR divisions, and this led to wars and referenda and ethnic cleansing of all kinds (Armenia v. Azerbaijan, Chechnya v. Russia, etc.).
The shape of the union's various SSRs had little, generally, to do with the national or ethnic character of the relevant places (the divisions that did attempt to conform to such generally were only ASSRs and below, entirely within the RFSR, as I recall, none of which have ever been offered or really sought independence) Indeed, as far as I know, these borders were constructed with the specific intent of erasing national and ethnic distinctions in favor of Soviet-ness.
All of which is to say that the time to deal with these problems, especially with the history of the interwar period to educate the interested parties, was when the union broke apart. It was the Soviets, dominated by the RFSR, but often led by non-Russians, who chose to include 'Novorossiya,' so called, and Crimea within Ukraine. It was they, or its successor, the RFSR and later the Federation, that should All of which is to emphasize that Russia's appeal to the supposedly neutral principle of self-determination was a sham, and the principle itself has lost a great deal of its salience due in large part to its victory (most places now conform to it, to a large extent), and as a result most people (especially outside the interested areas) don't have a lot of desire to upset the status quo in favor thereof.
Anyone who needed the final destruction of Czechoslovakia, or hypothetically Ukraine, to 'see' that Germany/Russia was addicted to gangsterism would, at best, be extremely morally myopic, not paying attention, or latently hostile. Of course, in the end, it was that gangsterism that ended up attracting some of their most important allies, such as with the Soviet-Nazi alliance. I think that Russia-China follows the same pattern; whatever the Chinese think in an absolute sense about Russian gangsterism is secondary to the fact that their gangsterism has caused them to be extremely diplomatically isolated, which makes them attractive as a target for diplomacy among countries similarly isolated (China, North Korea) or that feel themselves marginalized in some way (Brazil, India), which itself is usually due to their own internal dysfunction, which they choose to externalize. Similar logic applies to Germany and its allies, particularly the Japanese, and I guess the Romanians.
Also, as I recall, the Czechs were in fact not invited to the Munich Conference; not sure why you claim otherwise in this piece without supporting the assertion (the fact that the Czechs were not invited would seem to be one of those well-known myths you seek to debunk). The Ukrainians, again as I recall, were consulted as to whether they wanted to surrender their territorial integrity. Considering the aggression they'd already suffered (not so unlike the Czechs, as with German puppet Freikorps violence in the Sudentland prior to Munich) from the country doing the asking, they quite reasonably said no.
If one were to justify Munich purely in terms of buying time to enable better rearmament by the Allies, I'd say that's not crazy, but I don't believe any of the protagonists viewed it in that fashion, as you acknowledge in footnote 3. Chamberlain really believed his own bullshit. And of course it ended up not really being true. The Germans would never have been able to invade the UK. They never even really tried. The Germans hardly made a serious effort to defeat the UK in the air in the Battle of Britain. This was particularly true once the Germans lost their radio navigation and targeting advantage.
The French ultimately squandered time bought by building mostly okay weapons but using them totally ineffectively. It was they, with their massive, well-equipped, and under-employed land army, that refused to make any significant offensive moves in order to relieve Poland, due to what can only be termed civilizational despair.
I love the unsupported shot at Churchill at the end about Poland. As I recall, Churchill was prepared to risk a war with the Soviets over Poland, after they reneged on the promise of free and fair elections post-war (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Unthinkable).
That failed for numerous reasons, but primarily due to a lack of American support, which is kind of goofy in hindsight considering how much more badly infiltrated with communists the UK was. It's interesting that, essentially, the top level of government in the UK was much more hostile to the Soviets than the rank-and-file, and vice-versa in the US.
This quick take needs longer in the oven, I think.
Yes, this article is *extremely* selective about which bits of history to highlight, and doesn't seem to recognise the core issue with wars of territorial annexation leading to a profoundly shitty world to live in, and which we have every interest in discouraging.
I think if Chamberlain had not gushed about “peace in our time” he might not have been judged so harshly when that peace - a delaying action at best - fell apart a year later. The British and French (taking into account French political fragility at the time) had few options for confronting an aggressive Hitler. On the other hand in Ukraine, NATO had many more options to confront an expansionist Putin and used them. Yes, some loudmouths invoked Chamberlain and Biden did not want to be accused of weakness like Obama had been over Syria and Crimea. But I don’t see as direct a connection historically as you do. One additional point, the MAGA right was conflicted because they wanted desperately to paint Biden as Chamberlain but also wanted to appease Putin. Strange times.
As always, I enjoy your thinking and writing. The subscriber “Marc” who attempted to unsubscribe has one subscription and that’s to your Substack. No notes, no likes I can see and no logic in their comment.
Agree. And I think also, the consensus view is that real opposition to Germany's aggression in '38 may have prevented the Nazis from strengthening their strategic and economic position gained from consolidating central/eastern Europe AHEAD of military confrontation. And this is what is so comparable to the Russia-Ukraine today. If Russia were to take Ukraine, particularly without paying any price to do so, then Russia would be considerably strengthened (economically, strategically) and also emboldened to go another step west.
FWIW, I respectfully disagree with the argument here. I think these aggressive, gangster dictators with the hubris-nemesis complex will only stop when they are stopped externally. Weakness invites aggression, particularly with these types, imho.
I understand very well that history is written by the winners and that it is never as neat and tidy as the stories we tell ourselves. However, your take is twisted to fit your pre-existing views and morally indefensible. You conveniently omit all the events before both 1938 and 2022 that showed the expansionist aims of Hitler and Putin. Before 2022, NATO and the West had been very passive with Putin’s aggressions, hoping to avoid confrontation with him, and they still are very cautious (not at all like the macho reaction you conjure). Your assertion that Chamberlain’s master stroke revealed Hitler for who he was is simply not credible. Clear headed people knew well before 1938 what Hitler was up to and that he was not going to stop. On the moral side, you completely brush off the aspirations of peoples like the Ukrainians who had clearly demonstrated that they did not want to be lackeys of the Russian empire (because that is what it is). Right and wrong do matter and we all have to stand for something besides cynical calculations.
I would point out that the Ukrainian people consistently voted for peace with Russia for three decades and PM Zelensky himself was elected on a platform of peace with Russia. Regarding the history of military aggressions, I would highlight the fact that the US keeps invading countries on a regular basis (Yugoslavia 1999, Afghanistan 2001, Iraq 2003, Syria 2014-2024, etc), so any legal, political and moral opinion regarding such actions must account for that fact or be taken as empty, uninformed posturing.
I guess in your world, Maidan never happened or you have a glib way to dismiss it. And moral relativism (you have done wrong so you can’t judge me) is a common and pretty weak argument. Over and out.
The US invaded Iraq to bring democracy over there--and also due to false WMD claims. Russia invaded Ukraine to overthrow democracy over there. See the difference?
Maidan installed the winners of the 2012 Ukrainian parliamentary popular vote in power. They were denied power in 2012 because Yanukovych and his political allies changed the parliamentary election rules beforehand to favor them.
Maidan installed the winners of the 2012 Ukrainian parliamentary popular vote in power. They were denied power in 2012 because Yanukovych and his political allies changed the parliamentary election rules beforehand to favor them.
I don't know how anyone can take the view that Russia invaded Ukraine unprovoked or that NATO is cautious and peaceful while it conducts terror attacks on civilians, operates international crime syndicates, trafficks arms, drugs and humans across the globe, expands relentlessly towards russia and even coups governments.
It's like they are living on another planet.
Then there's not realising that crimea had belonged to Russia for two centuries, they had a military base and war ships in the port, and that it only formally became part of Ukraine in 1991, 30 years ago.
He thinks Russia should watch as Ukraine joins NATO, cuts them off from the sea, persecutes ethnic russians and fills up with missiles.
If only there was a historical example of what America did when hostile missiles turned up in their neighbourhood.
A factual note first - it was not the British who began the bombing of civilian targets in WWII, it was the Nazis. They started in Warsaw and Rotterdam.
To the extent that one can usefully analogize between Munich and the current situation in Ukraine, the real "Munich" happened when nothing meaningful was done in response to the Russian invasion and annexation of Ukraine. That was appeasement by default. The West's response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine was - like Britain's and France's respond to the invasion of Poland - essentially inevitable after the invasion of Ukraine proved - as did the the invasion of Poland - that Russia (like Nazi Germany) was motivated purely by expansionist motives, not by notions of "self-determination," and that Russia would continue on that course until stopped.
The difference between the invasions of Poland and Ukraine is that, unlike Poland in 1939, Ukraine's allies were able to provide concrete and meaningful military assistance. And so the war has dragged on in a way that's been devastating for the military strength of the invader.
But the two situations are similar in this sense; both ended with strategic defeat of the aggressor. Russia has already lost this war, even if it makes territorial gains in the end. I don't know how else one could categorize how Russia is now viewed in Europe (even by countries that were willing to stay neutral throughout the Cold War) as anything other than a catastrophic blow to its long-term aim of dominating its periphery.
Also worth noting is that there was no guarantee at all that Hitler would have actually invaded Czechoslovakia. Hitler made threats, and then waited for his opposition to crumble. The Czech military was arguably equal to the challenge of defending its borders against a German invasion. Had France and Britain stood by Benes (the Czech PM), the outcome could easily have been different.
The anti-appeasers were right. Hitler didn't stop with Austria or Czechoslovakia, which is what Chamberlain hoped (apparently without much confidence though) would happen. He saw what Britain and France did in Munich as weakness, and made the same bet in Poland, without realizing that things had changed. When Göring's told Hitler, regarding the Polish crisis, that it was "time to stop this va banque" - ie to compromise - Hitler replied "it's the only call I ever make."
A quibble: The French did attack Germany in September, 1939 in what is called the Saar Offensive. It was successful as far as it went, being undertaken against hollowed out German forces, but the French almost immediately scampered back to the Maginot line upon the Polish collapse. That didn’t stop them from heaping opprobrium on the British when they, in turn, scampered back across the channel upon the French collapse.
It is impossible to completely understand Churchill's behavior at the time without realizing the debts he owed to Czechs and Jews who had bailed him out of certain bankruptcy.
This is covered well in No More Champagne- Churchill and His Money by David Lough.
Your comparison of Ukraine with pre-WWII Europe is not apt. Comparisons of Putin with Hitler are apt, and the situation is very different today from what it was then. NATO is a strong alliance that is committed to stopping Putin's expansionism and is in a very strong position to do that, which was not the case before. Whether or not Chamberlin was an appeaser, people like you are certainly Putin appeasers.
“And then it would have been clear […] whether Russia was prepared to be a respectable member of the international community, playing by the rules supposed to bind everyone equally.”
I have a small problem with this — because Russia, by its 2008 invasion of Georgia and de facto annexation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, then its 2014 green-manification of Crimea, had already made it clearer than a Swarovski crystal that it was NOT prepared to be a ‘respectable member of the international community’.
The US has invaded (and keeps invading) a lot more countries. Shall we ban the US from the Olympics, stop them from using global banks? Shall we grab Bezos yachts in European waters?
It’s pretty easy to find the flaws in your argument, you see.
My head explodes from cognitive dissonance. You wrote a sensible article with an interesting argument and now you write this? After such fallacious whataboutism, I can’t be bothered to continue.
More i read what you write more i realise your grasp of history is really lacking.
1. The point on Czechoslovakia already being in 1938 close to disintegration. Provide evidence, because i havent seen any and ive studied that damn period quite a lot.
2. Mentioning 1993 - how does what happened 55 years later prove your point about 1938? Its like the CZ was stuck in amber and nothing happened in the meantime that might have influenced the 1993 split.
3. Your attempt to get into Chamberlain’s brain and overall counterfactual history. You are right on Soviets for sure. But on the west, if they entered the war, at that point in 1938, 10 french divisions would have brough the whole edifice down. You know how we know that? Because Wehrmacht generals admitted that would have happened in Sep 1939 and in 1936 (remilitariation). Germany was not ready for 2 front war and Hitler knew that. Seems you dont. Which also means you didnt take into account a counterfactual where the threat of war by chamberlain makes Hitler back down.
4. Ukraine - everything you write on that part is so clearly biased that its not worth even engaging. Lets just repeat for posterity sake. There was no Munich, Putin just landed little green man and occupied Crimea. So no connection there to 1938. Putin also started the Donbass rebellion, which any gov in the world would try to put down if it happened on their territory. And Putin invaded Ukraine. Also, Kursk was risky but at this point might be the only thing standing in the way of Trump just giving Ukraine up, because any peace deal will require a territory swap.
And of course you never engage with the broader point. If it becomes normal to just take any territory where u have minority citizens, we are looking at 100+ wars soon. Its was a precedent in 1938 and its a precedent today. Last one led to a WW. Seems like you support another one.
Overall, badly analysed and interpreted, with a weirdly biased assessment of how people thought at the time.
And Wikipedia. You do need to start with the basics. Surprised that you never even heard of the expression EUROPE FIRST, which was the slogan that the US government used to explain its policy regarding the Pacific Theatre. I'm not your History 101 teacher, can't start from the beginning with you.
That wikipedia states that in 1935, Slovak party got 30% in Slovakia. So they werent even dominant in their own part of the country. That doesnt say to me “ready for disintegration”. Learn to interpret sources. And you dont have to teach me anything, i have MA in history. Lets recap, wrong on Slovak party because 30% vote in slovakia isnt disintegration, wrong on Europe first because the point isnt about its existence, its your interpretation of it. You start with the conclusion then try to shoehorn arguments into it, without caring whether they fit or not. When called out, you go into turtle mode, not even attempting to grapple with the actual argument.
Your whole setup around why Chamberlain was wise to reject war in 1938 apply... literally not at all to the situation around Ukraine in 2022. I was interested in the defense of Chamberlain until that move where suddenly the article tone went from cheeky historical argument to cheeky illogical screed.
Fair. I did address the point in response to an earlier comment: 'You are right. Chamberlain delivered his speech weeks after Churchill delivered a similar one. Hitchens’ point was that Churchill’s was not broadcast at the time, but Chamberlain was, so whoever remembered having heard the speech was remembering having heard Chamberlain’s “rather reedy tones.” Both Churchill & Chamberlain, by the way, were probably lifting from Kipling, as David Gilmour shows in his 2002 ‘Imperial’ biography of the writer. The seals in The Jungle Book “fought in the breakers, they fought in the sand, and they fought in the smooth-worn basalt rocks of the nurseries”. Kipling , BTW, was very hostile to Churchill.'
"The West was given the chance between war and dishonor, it chose war"
No, dude. Putin chose war. You can tell by the tanks crossing the border on his command.
The logic that makes Russia somehow not the aggressor here is absolutely wild; the war wouldn't have happened if they didn't drive tanks across the border! Russia doesn't have some sort of natural claim on neighbouring countries; we should defer to the people of those countries as to their fate, not to Russia.
Not only that, but the historical analogy here is wrong; Munich isn't the Donbass war, Munich is Russia taking Crimea and subsequently tearing up the Minsk accords is Munich. Not to mention that Ukraine's territorial integrity was guaranteed by Russia (along with the UK and USA) in exchange for giving up their nuclear weapons; it's pretty clear that this war wouldn't have happened if Ukraine was a nuclear state.
If 2014 had been 1938, there would have been no sanctions against Russia (there were none against Nazi Germany then) and the border adjustments would have been accepted: the Sudetenland was recognized as part of Germany, but Crimea is not recognized as part of Russia to this day. So, no, sorry but not even close.
Had Russia outright annexed the Donbass back in 2014 instead of trying to shove its own interpretation of the Minsk Agreements down Ukraine's throat, then things would have been much better for Russia, Ukraine, and the Donbass.
What about the shelling of Donetsk and other Russian cities from 2014 until 2023?
The part that you're very carefully eliding, in both cases actually, is what came before. The Germans, shortly before the Munich Conference, had invaded their sovereign neighbor, Austria, after sponsoring all manner of thuggish actors within the country, and followed it with a sham referendum.
The extent to which Russia's playbook in annexing Crimea matched that of the Anschluss is somewhat shocking for those whose justification is denazification. Both of these incidents clearly should have demonstrated to any that were paying attention that, indeed, both of these states were addicted to gangsterism. Even before that, and again almost exactly parallel, paramilitary or even official forces associated with both powers had been committing atrocities in a supposedly neutral country in the midst of a civil war (Spain and Syria).
I'll concede that the logic of national self-determination was extremely salient post-Versailles, it being a relatively recent invention, and that this did indicate that the creation of Austria and Czechoslovakia in the forms they took was mostly to punish Germany without regard for the self-determination of the Germans living in those countries. But punishing the defeated power in a war was also fair by the logic of the time; it just happened that the victorious powers miscalculated as to which logic would remain salient, and underestimated the extent to which their own interests would immediately cease to coincide once the military threat of Germany at least temporarily receded.
But really, if Germany had actually wanted to employ the self-determination weapon, we'll call it, in at all a good-faith manner, they would have done (or tried to do) the referenda BEFORE they started moving the army around. Referenda had been used in numerous places post-war to determine borders, not least at the German-Polish border. By the logic of self-determination, Germany could have requested or sponsored referenda in Austria and Czechoslovakia. If, as is likely, those states had refused to hold them, or the victorious powers had tried to forbid them, then Germany would have had a much easier time assuming the moral high ground.
But the Germans had no interest in good faith; they wanted to achieve greater Germany, and all else was secondary at best. They would tolerate no such extrinsic or self-incurred risks to the end goal. So it is with Russia. They wanted to dismember and neutralize their rivals, and aggrandize themselves territorially. I don't know to what extent any free and fair referenda took place or were requested and then blocked in places like Donbass, but I doubt there were any.
Also, don't forget that it was the Soviet Union that dismantled itself, and not on the basis of national self-determination. Obviously, numerous of its constituents had territorial and other disputes with each other when the union broke apart along its internal SSR divisions, and this led to wars and referenda and ethnic cleansing of all kinds (Armenia v. Azerbaijan, Chechnya v. Russia, etc.).
The shape of the union's various SSRs had little, generally, to do with the national or ethnic character of the relevant places (the divisions that did attempt to conform to such generally were only ASSRs and below, entirely within the RFSR, as I recall, none of which have ever been offered or really sought independence) Indeed, as far as I know, these borders were constructed with the specific intent of erasing national and ethnic distinctions in favor of Soviet-ness.
All of which is to say that the time to deal with these problems, especially with the history of the interwar period to educate the interested parties, was when the union broke apart. It was the Soviets, dominated by the RFSR, but often led by non-Russians, who chose to include 'Novorossiya,' so called, and Crimea within Ukraine. It was they, or its successor, the RFSR and later the Federation, that should All of which is to emphasize that Russia's appeal to the supposedly neutral principle of self-determination was a sham, and the principle itself has lost a great deal of its salience due in large part to its victory (most places now conform to it, to a large extent), and as a result most people (especially outside the interested areas) don't have a lot of desire to upset the status quo in favor thereof.
Anyone who needed the final destruction of Czechoslovakia, or hypothetically Ukraine, to 'see' that Germany/Russia was addicted to gangsterism would, at best, be extremely morally myopic, not paying attention, or latently hostile. Of course, in the end, it was that gangsterism that ended up attracting some of their most important allies, such as with the Soviet-Nazi alliance. I think that Russia-China follows the same pattern; whatever the Chinese think in an absolute sense about Russian gangsterism is secondary to the fact that their gangsterism has caused them to be extremely diplomatically isolated, which makes them attractive as a target for diplomacy among countries similarly isolated (China, North Korea) or that feel themselves marginalized in some way (Brazil, India), which itself is usually due to their own internal dysfunction, which they choose to externalize. Similar logic applies to Germany and its allies, particularly the Japanese, and I guess the Romanians.
Also, as I recall, the Czechs were in fact not invited to the Munich Conference; not sure why you claim otherwise in this piece without supporting the assertion (the fact that the Czechs were not invited would seem to be one of those well-known myths you seek to debunk). The Ukrainians, again as I recall, were consulted as to whether they wanted to surrender their territorial integrity. Considering the aggression they'd already suffered (not so unlike the Czechs, as with German puppet Freikorps violence in the Sudentland prior to Munich) from the country doing the asking, they quite reasonably said no.
If one were to justify Munich purely in terms of buying time to enable better rearmament by the Allies, I'd say that's not crazy, but I don't believe any of the protagonists viewed it in that fashion, as you acknowledge in footnote 3. Chamberlain really believed his own bullshit. And of course it ended up not really being true. The Germans would never have been able to invade the UK. They never even really tried. The Germans hardly made a serious effort to defeat the UK in the air in the Battle of Britain. This was particularly true once the Germans lost their radio navigation and targeting advantage.
The French ultimately squandered time bought by building mostly okay weapons but using them totally ineffectively. It was they, with their massive, well-equipped, and under-employed land army, that refused to make any significant offensive moves in order to relieve Poland, due to what can only be termed civilizational despair.
I love the unsupported shot at Churchill at the end about Poland. As I recall, Churchill was prepared to risk a war with the Soviets over Poland, after they reneged on the promise of free and fair elections post-war (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Unthinkable).
That failed for numerous reasons, but primarily due to a lack of American support, which is kind of goofy in hindsight considering how much more badly infiltrated with communists the UK was. It's interesting that, essentially, the top level of government in the UK was much more hostile to the Soviets than the rank-and-file, and vice-versa in the US.
This quick take needs longer in the oven, I think.
Yes, this article is *extremely* selective about which bits of history to highlight, and doesn't seem to recognise the core issue with wars of territorial annexation leading to a profoundly shitty world to live in, and which we have every interest in discouraging.
I think if Chamberlain had not gushed about “peace in our time” he might not have been judged so harshly when that peace - a delaying action at best - fell apart a year later. The British and French (taking into account French political fragility at the time) had few options for confronting an aggressive Hitler. On the other hand in Ukraine, NATO had many more options to confront an expansionist Putin and used them. Yes, some loudmouths invoked Chamberlain and Biden did not want to be accused of weakness like Obama had been over Syria and Crimea. But I don’t see as direct a connection historically as you do. One additional point, the MAGA right was conflicted because they wanted desperately to paint Biden as Chamberlain but also wanted to appease Putin. Strange times.
As always, I enjoy your thinking and writing. The subscriber “Marc” who attempted to unsubscribe has one subscription and that’s to your Substack. No notes, no likes I can see and no logic in their comment.
Agree. And I think also, the consensus view is that real opposition to Germany's aggression in '38 may have prevented the Nazis from strengthening their strategic and economic position gained from consolidating central/eastern Europe AHEAD of military confrontation. And this is what is so comparable to the Russia-Ukraine today. If Russia were to take Ukraine, particularly without paying any price to do so, then Russia would be considerably strengthened (economically, strategically) and also emboldened to go another step west.
FWIW, I respectfully disagree with the argument here. I think these aggressive, gangster dictators with the hubris-nemesis complex will only stop when they are stopped externally. Weakness invites aggression, particularly with these types, imho.
I understand very well that history is written by the winners and that it is never as neat and tidy as the stories we tell ourselves. However, your take is twisted to fit your pre-existing views and morally indefensible. You conveniently omit all the events before both 1938 and 2022 that showed the expansionist aims of Hitler and Putin. Before 2022, NATO and the West had been very passive with Putin’s aggressions, hoping to avoid confrontation with him, and they still are very cautious (not at all like the macho reaction you conjure). Your assertion that Chamberlain’s master stroke revealed Hitler for who he was is simply not credible. Clear headed people knew well before 1938 what Hitler was up to and that he was not going to stop. On the moral side, you completely brush off the aspirations of peoples like the Ukrainians who had clearly demonstrated that they did not want to be lackeys of the Russian empire (because that is what it is). Right and wrong do matter and we all have to stand for something besides cynical calculations.
I would point out that the Ukrainian people consistently voted for peace with Russia for three decades and PM Zelensky himself was elected on a platform of peace with Russia. Regarding the history of military aggressions, I would highlight the fact that the US keeps invading countries on a regular basis (Yugoslavia 1999, Afghanistan 2001, Iraq 2003, Syria 2014-2024, etc), so any legal, political and moral opinion regarding such actions must account for that fact or be taken as empty, uninformed posturing.
I guess in your world, Maidan never happened or you have a glib way to dismiss it. And moral relativism (you have done wrong so you can’t judge me) is a common and pretty weak argument. Over and out.
If you are going to pearl clutch Russia invading Ukraine then the Iraq war is pertinent. If Putin is a war criminal then so is George bush.
Maidan was an anti democratic coup, orchestrated by the US.
The US invaded Iraq to bring democracy over there--and also due to false WMD claims. Russia invaded Ukraine to overthrow democracy over there. See the difference?
Maidan installed the winners of the 2012 Ukrainian parliamentary popular vote in power. They were denied power in 2012 because Yanukovych and his political allies changed the parliamentary election rules beforehand to favor them.
“Maiden”. The CIA backed coup that turned Ukraine into their vassal state?
Maidan installed the winners of the 2012 Ukrainian parliamentary popular vote in power. They were denied power in 2012 because Yanukovych and his political allies changed the parliamentary election rules beforehand to favor them.
I don't know how anyone can take the view that Russia invaded Ukraine unprovoked or that NATO is cautious and peaceful while it conducts terror attacks on civilians, operates international crime syndicates, trafficks arms, drugs and humans across the globe, expands relentlessly towards russia and even coups governments.
It's like they are living on another planet.
Then there's not realising that crimea had belonged to Russia for two centuries, they had a military base and war ships in the port, and that it only formally became part of Ukraine in 1991, 30 years ago.
He thinks Russia should watch as Ukraine joins NATO, cuts them off from the sea, persecutes ethnic russians and fills up with missiles.
If only there was a historical example of what America did when hostile missiles turned up in their neighbourhood.
A factual note first - it was not the British who began the bombing of civilian targets in WWII, it was the Nazis. They started in Warsaw and Rotterdam.
To the extent that one can usefully analogize between Munich and the current situation in Ukraine, the real "Munich" happened when nothing meaningful was done in response to the Russian invasion and annexation of Ukraine. That was appeasement by default. The West's response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine was - like Britain's and France's respond to the invasion of Poland - essentially inevitable after the invasion of Ukraine proved - as did the the invasion of Poland - that Russia (like Nazi Germany) was motivated purely by expansionist motives, not by notions of "self-determination," and that Russia would continue on that course until stopped.
The difference between the invasions of Poland and Ukraine is that, unlike Poland in 1939, Ukraine's allies were able to provide concrete and meaningful military assistance. And so the war has dragged on in a way that's been devastating for the military strength of the invader.
But the two situations are similar in this sense; both ended with strategic defeat of the aggressor. Russia has already lost this war, even if it makes territorial gains in the end. I don't know how else one could categorize how Russia is now viewed in Europe (even by countries that were willing to stay neutral throughout the Cold War) as anything other than a catastrophic blow to its long-term aim of dominating its periphery.
Also worth noting is that there was no guarantee at all that Hitler would have actually invaded Czechoslovakia. Hitler made threats, and then waited for his opposition to crumble. The Czech military was arguably equal to the challenge of defending its borders against a German invasion. Had France and Britain stood by Benes (the Czech PM), the outcome could easily have been different.
The anti-appeasers were right. Hitler didn't stop with Austria or Czechoslovakia, which is what Chamberlain hoped (apparently without much confidence though) would happen. He saw what Britain and France did in Munich as weakness, and made the same bet in Poland, without realizing that things had changed. When Göring's told Hitler, regarding the Polish crisis, that it was "time to stop this va banque" - ie to compromise - Hitler replied "it's the only call I ever make."
Thank you for an excellent and informative article - I did not know this before.
Great contrarian take, as usual .Don't let the Liz Cheney type warhawks push you around
Thank you.
One may add that year gained just enough Fighter Aircraft for England to just make it during the battle of Britain.
Typo:
"These where people who had lived as Germans in the Austrian empire for centuries"
Should be "These were people".
Also:
"in exchange for leaving him have the Sudetenland"
This is ungrammatical and should be rewritten.
A quibble: The French did attack Germany in September, 1939 in what is called the Saar Offensive. It was successful as far as it went, being undertaken against hollowed out German forces, but the French almost immediately scampered back to the Maginot line upon the Polish collapse. That didn’t stop them from heaping opprobrium on the British when they, in turn, scampered back across the channel upon the French collapse.
It is impossible to completely understand Churchill's behavior at the time without realizing the debts he owed to Czechs and Jews who had bailed him out of certain bankruptcy.
This is covered well in No More Champagne- Churchill and His Money by David Lough.
Your comparison of Ukraine with pre-WWII Europe is not apt. Comparisons of Putin with Hitler are apt, and the situation is very different today from what it was then. NATO is a strong alliance that is committed to stopping Putin's expansionism and is in a very strong position to do that, which was not the case before. Whether or not Chamberlin was an appeaser, people like you are certainly Putin appeasers.
“And then it would have been clear […] whether Russia was prepared to be a respectable member of the international community, playing by the rules supposed to bind everyone equally.”
I have a small problem with this — because Russia, by its 2008 invasion of Georgia and de facto annexation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, then its 2014 green-manification of Crimea, had already made it clearer than a Swarovski crystal that it was NOT prepared to be a ‘respectable member of the international community’.
The US has invaded (and keeps invading) a lot more countries. Shall we ban the US from the Olympics, stop them from using global banks? Shall we grab Bezos yachts in European waters?
It’s pretty easy to find the flaws in your argument, you see.
My head explodes from cognitive dissonance. You wrote a sensible article with an interesting argument and now you write this? After such fallacious whataboutism, I can’t be bothered to continue.
It's not whataboutism: it's whether the law applies to all. If it doesn't, then it's illegitimate.
Indeed, the proper time to go to war with Germany was March 1936 when they remilitarised the Rhineland in breach of treaties.
Give the sausage-munchers an inch, and before you know it they're burning down churches in Belgium and gassing the disabled.
More i read what you write more i realise your grasp of history is really lacking.
1. The point on Czechoslovakia already being in 1938 close to disintegration. Provide evidence, because i havent seen any and ive studied that damn period quite a lot.
2. Mentioning 1993 - how does what happened 55 years later prove your point about 1938? Its like the CZ was stuck in amber and nothing happened in the meantime that might have influenced the 1993 split.
3. Your attempt to get into Chamberlain’s brain and overall counterfactual history. You are right on Soviets for sure. But on the west, if they entered the war, at that point in 1938, 10 french divisions would have brough the whole edifice down. You know how we know that? Because Wehrmacht generals admitted that would have happened in Sep 1939 and in 1936 (remilitariation). Germany was not ready for 2 front war and Hitler knew that. Seems you dont. Which also means you didnt take into account a counterfactual where the threat of war by chamberlain makes Hitler back down.
4. Ukraine - everything you write on that part is so clearly biased that its not worth even engaging. Lets just repeat for posterity sake. There was no Munich, Putin just landed little green man and occupied Crimea. So no connection there to 1938. Putin also started the Donbass rebellion, which any gov in the world would try to put down if it happened on their territory. And Putin invaded Ukraine. Also, Kursk was risky but at this point might be the only thing standing in the way of Trump just giving Ukraine up, because any peace deal will require a territory swap.
And of course you never engage with the broader point. If it becomes normal to just take any territory where u have minority citizens, we are looking at 100+ wars soon. Its was a precedent in 1938 and its a precedent today. Last one led to a WW. Seems like you support another one.
Overall, badly analysed and interpreted, with a weirdly biased assessment of how people thought at the time.
https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/2adm7i/how_much_of_the_us_war_effort_was_devoted_to_the/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slovak_People%27s_Party
This is all basic stuff, you just need to read more and watch fewer Youtube videos.
Really? Reddit?
And Wikipedia. You do need to start with the basics. Surprised that you never even heard of the expression EUROPE FIRST, which was the slogan that the US government used to explain its policy regarding the Pacific Theatre. I'm not your History 101 teacher, can't start from the beginning with you.
That wikipedia states that in 1935, Slovak party got 30% in Slovakia. So they werent even dominant in their own part of the country. That doesnt say to me “ready for disintegration”. Learn to interpret sources. And you dont have to teach me anything, i have MA in history. Lets recap, wrong on Slovak party because 30% vote in slovakia isnt disintegration, wrong on Europe first because the point isnt about its existence, its your interpretation of it. You start with the conclusion then try to shoehorn arguments into it, without caring whether they fit or not. When called out, you go into turtle mode, not even attempting to grapple with the actual argument.
And europe first wasnt a slogan to explain its policy regarding the pacific, it was a strategy. And that strategy didnt imply what you say it did.
Your whole setup around why Chamberlain was wise to reject war in 1938 apply... literally not at all to the situation around Ukraine in 2022. I was interested in the defense of Chamberlain until that move where suddenly the article tone went from cheeky historical argument to cheeky illogical screed.
> we shall fight them on the beaches
Wiki contests your footnote.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/We_shall_fight_on_the_beaches
Fair. I did address the point in response to an earlier comment: 'You are right. Chamberlain delivered his speech weeks after Churchill delivered a similar one. Hitchens’ point was that Churchill’s was not broadcast at the time, but Chamberlain was, so whoever remembered having heard the speech was remembering having heard Chamberlain’s “rather reedy tones.” Both Churchill & Chamberlain, by the way, were probably lifting from Kipling, as David Gilmour shows in his 2002 ‘Imperial’ biography of the writer. The seals in The Jungle Book “fought in the breakers, they fought in the sand, and they fought in the smooth-worn basalt rocks of the nurseries”. Kipling , BTW, was very hostile to Churchill.'